Top Defense Expert Warns China ‘Likely To Go For An Invasion’ Of Taiwan, Reveals What U.S. Must Do

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Elbridge Colby, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development, warned during an interview on Sunday night that China is likely to try to invade Taiwan and that the U.S. must be prepared to use military force to counter an attack.

“I actually think China’s most likely, if it really wants to solve the Taiwan issue, which I do think is really consequential for American’s interests in a concrete way, I think they’re likely to go for an invasion,” Colby told Steve Hilton on Fox News. “I mean, the basic thing is these shows of force that you’re showing, they’re not going to work to subordinate Taiwan. If China’s really serious about it, it’s going to go for a fait accompli, it’s going to move in, take it over, and then present us with just simply too difficult of a reality to reverse.”

Colby warned that China wants to dominate the world and that the key to them doing that is breaking apart nations in the region that would seek to block it from reaching those goals, including Japan, Taiwan, India, Vietnam, Australia and others.

“We should really make sure we have what I call denial defense, and we should basically stop doing almost everything else,” Colby said on what the U.S. should be focused on doing right now. “And that, at the end of the day, is basically about defeating that invasion that I talked about. Sink the fleet, shoot down the air armada, kill, capture, or wound the soldiers that land on Taiwan. If we can do that, it’s actually a pretty low standard, think Britain 1940. If we can do that, we may not win the war in the end, but it’ll be enough.”

WATCH:

TRANSCRIPT:

STEVE HILTON, FOX NEWS HOST: The author of the new book, ‘The Strategy Of Denial: American Defense In An Age Of Great Power Conflict,’ Elbridge Colby. Elbridge, thank you for being with us tonight. Really, really fascinating arguments in your book. Let’s start with the China part of it. What do you think is the most, you’ve got a very provocative sense of what you think China is most likely to do with respect to Taiwan.

ELBRIDGE COLBY: Well, great, thanks for having me, Steve. Great to be on and talk about this important issue, I actually think China’s most likely, if it really wants to solve the Taiwan issue, which I do think is really consequential for American’s interests in a concrete way, I think they’re likely to go for an invasion. I mean, the basic thing is these shows of force that you’re showing, they’re not going to work to subordinate Taiwan, if China’s really serious about it, it’s going to go for a fait accompli, it’s going to move in, take it over, and then present us with just simply too difficult of a reality to reverse.

HILTON: And why should we care about that? So what if they invade Taiwan would be the provocative question back to you?

COLBY: Well, I think it’s a completely legitimate question, actually. And I think there’s a lot a lot to it. I mean, our interest in in Taiwan are very significant, but partial. The fundamental reason is that Taiwan is connected to the fate of what I think of as our coalition in Asia. Look, our lives would fundamentally change if China dominated the world. And the way for it to dominate the world is for it to dominate its region, which is going to be over 50% of global GDP, the way to get there is to break apart any group of states that tries to block it from doing so. That group is going to be led by us, there’s nobody else who can do it. But it’s gonna include countries like Japan, Taiwan, India, maybe Vietnam, Australia, etc. If China wants to do that, it’s got to put a sort of a knife at the heart of our coalition. And to do that, Taiwan makes a lot of sense for two reasons. One is Taiwan, MacArthur called it the unsinkable aircraft carrier. If China gets Taiwan that its operating in the Central Pacific. Think, in a way, almost World War II in the Pacific. The second reason is whatever people say, our credibility is tied to it. And credibility isn’t something that matters all the time. But it sure matters if you’re in Japan, or the Philippines, or an archipelago in the western Pacific, and you say, well, the Americans have backed down from defending another archipelago in the western Pacific, namely Taiwan. So the key though is that we got to find a way to be able to defend Taiwan in a way that’s consistent with how deep our interests are, our interests are important, but they’re not existential. And that’s a real kind of core point in my book.

HILTON: So very quickly, what should we do?

COLBY: Well, we should really make sure we have what I call denial defense and we should basically stop doing almost everything else. And that at the end of the day is basically about defeating that invasion that I talked about. Sink the fleet, shoot down the air armada, kill, capture, or wound the soldiers that land on Taiwan. If we can do that, it’s actually a pretty low standard, think Britain 1940. If we can do that, we may not win the war in the end, but it’ll be enough.

HILTON: Well, there you are. I told you it’s provocative, really appreciate you bringing this to our attention. It’s incredibly important. Of course, we’ll follow it. Thank you for watching.

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